Prudential Prairie Path, REALTORS

Five Musts Before You List Your Home

2012-05-15T16:24:00Z

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Deciding to list your home for sale is a momentous time. It means you will be moving on to a new stage of life, no matter if you’re moving up or sizing down. Take a moment to look over these tips for what every seller should do before they put their home on the market.

Organize Your Paperwork: Every homeowner should have a detailed list of all past repairs, updates, and upgrades they’ve made. This will help your agent know what should be mentioned on the MLS. Did you put on a new roof in 2010 or a install a new water heater in 2009? These are great selling features because they mean less work in the future for the prospective buyer.

Also included in this list should be any home warranty information. These warranties will most likely transfer with title of the home.

Get Ready to Declutter: Even before you’ve officially listed your home for sale, you should start getting rid of things you don’t need. Starting now will mean a more thorough and less rushed job of clearing things out.

Start with one closet and work your way through the entire home. Sort items to toss, keep, sell, and donate.

Having a yard sale is a wonderful way of making a little extra pocket change while reducing the amount of things you’ll have in your home during showings and that you’ll need to pack up and move. It’s a win-win!

Clean, Clean, and Clean Some More: Dirty homes are a real buyer turnoff. Now is a great time wash down walls, spruce up paint, and give your entire home a thorough cleaning. Do your carpets need refreshing? Consider renting a carpet shampoo machine or hiring a professional carpet cleaning company to come in and revamp your carpets.

Chances are buyers will ask for this anyway come closing time. You’ll beat them to the punch and have a shiny, sparkling home to show for it.

Get an Inspection: Did you think inspections were only for buyers? Having a pre-sale inspection can mean identifying problem areas. Perhaps you’re unaware that your foundation needs repaired. This will severely affect your listing price. It’s best to be prepared and realistic in today’s market.

Make Repairs or Get Estimates: Your inspection will likely leave you with a list of repairs, large and small, that need made. Keep in mind that prospective buyers will also get an inspection of your home and will find these same issues. Head them off at the pass and do some fixing up. You may wish to go ahead with large repairs. If not, be sure to at least get estimates so you are fully prepared for negotiations (you’ll know what the real cost should be) or so you can provide the estimates for buyers.

Start Staging: Staging is like prepping your home for its first date. You want to have it clean and well-dressed. This means amping up curb appeal with neat landscaping, fresh paint, and flowers. It means rearranging furniture and removing clutter.

Congratulations on deciding to list your home for sale. Be proactive about making a good first step by following these tried and true tips.

Shadow Inventory: 46 Months to Clear Distressed Housing Supply

2012-05-15T16:23:00Z

It will take 46 months to clear the market’s supply of distressed homes, or the shadow inventory, according to estimates from Standard & Poor’s Rating Services based on first-quarter 2012 data.

The agency’s latest estimate came in one month shy of the liquidation timeline determined in the fourth quarter of 2011.

While national residential mortgage liquidation rates appeared stable over the first three months of this year, these rates varied widely between local markets, which prevented any significant reduction in S&P’s months-to-clear estimate, the agency explained in its report.

Regional variations in how quickly servicers can clear the backlog of nonperforming loans are primarily due to differences in foreclosure procedures, judicial vs. non-judicial.

As of first-quarter 2012, S&P says its months-to-clear estimate in judicial states was almost 2.5x as long as non-judicial states.

S&P includes in the shadow inventory all outstanding properties on which the mortgage payments are 90 or more days delinquent, properties in foreclosure, and properties that are REO. The agency also includes 70 percent of the loans that became current, or “cured,” from 90-day delinquency within the past 12 months because S&P says these loans are more likely to re-default.

S&P’s calculation of the months to clear the shadow inventory is the ratio of the total volume of distressed loans to the six-month moving average of liquidations. Although S&P’s analysis of the shadow inventory uses only non-agency loan data, the agency’s analysts believe the months-to-clear is similarly high for the market as a whole.

The volume of these distressed U.S. non-agency residential mortgages—which excludes loans from government sponsored entities, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—remained extremely high at $354 billion in the first quarter, according to S&P. The agency does note, however, that the industry’s distress volume has declined in each quarter since mid-2010.

To put the shadows into perspective, S&P says this latest number, which is based on the original balances of the loans, represents slightly less than one-third of the outstanding non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market in the United States.

The New York City metropolitan statistical area (MSA) has the highest months-to-clear in the nation, at 202 months.

S&P also reported that the U.S. monthly first default rate fell to 0.67 percent in March 2012, the lowest level since May 2007. The first default rate is the percentage of loans that became 90-plus-days delinquent in that month for the first time, as a percent of all loans that have never before been at least 90 days or more past due.

This means that properties are entering the shadow inventory at a slower rate. S&P says with this improvement, the speed at which servicers can liquidate or cure nonperforming loans will determine the size of the shadow inventory going forward.

Default rates have been falling since first-quarter 2009 and the average national liquidation rate has stabilized, according to S&P—both factors that bode well for getting a handle on the magnitude of the industry’s shadow inventory and its inevitable impact.

Home Prices Rise in Half of U.S. Cities as Markets Stabilize

2012-05-15T16:21:00Z

Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, talks about the U.S. economy and real estate market. She speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)

The U.S. housing market is showing signs of bottoming as improving employment and record-low mortgage rates boost demand while inventories of available properties tighten. At the end of March, 2.37 million previously owned homes were available for sale, 22 percent fewer than a year earlier, the Realtors said.

“The housing market is still depressed but it had a good quarter,” Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in a telephone interview today. “We’re on the mend but it’s still something that will take two or three years before we’re back to normal.”

The national median existing single-family home price was $158,100 in the first quarter, down 0.4 percent from the first three months of 2011, according to the Realtors group.

The best-performing metro area was Cape Coral, Florida, where prices increased 28.1 percent from a year earlier. Prices rose 19 percent in Grand Rapids, Michigan; 16.9 percent in Palm Bay, Florida; and 16.6 percent in Erie, Pennsylvania.

Biggest Declines

Kingston, New York, had the biggest decline, with the median selling price tumbling 22 percent in the quarter. It was followed by Stamford, Connecticut, with an 18 percent decline; Mobile, Alabama, at 14.7 percent; and Atlanta at 12 percent.

The median selling price is influenced by the mix of homes on the market and probably was boosted by a smaller share of transactions involving distressed properties. Those homes, which sell at discounts, accounted for 32 percent of first-quarter sales, down from 38 percent a year earlier.

Prices are more volatile than normal because they are affected by the prevalence of distressed sales and “sudden upswings” in buyer interest in some areas, said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist.

‘Broad Shortages’

“We have broad shortages of lower-priced homes in much of the country, with very tight supply in Western states for homes through the middle price ranges,” Yun said in the report.“This is good news for many sellers who wish to list now, or for those waiting for prices to improve.”

Sales of previously owned homes rose 5.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the report. Purchases climbed 11.7 percent in the Midwest, 6.6 percent in the Northeast, 4.1 percent in the South, and 1.4 percent in the West.

Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest mortgage-finance company, today reported a $2.7 billion first-quarter profit after a $6.5 billion loss a year earlier, citing smaller declines in home prices as one of the reasons for improvement. The Washington-based company said that it won’t need Treasury Department aid to balance its books for the first time since it was seized by federal regulators in 2008.

Lenders that Sell Short Sales Faster and for Less, According to RealtyTrac

2012-04-24T16:53:00Z

By: Esther Cho

Pursuing a short sale is often thought of as a painstaking process, and it’s not uncommon to hear of complaints about slow responses from servicers and last minute rejections on offers. Fortunately, not all lenders/servicers are the same when it comes to dealing with short sales, and RealtyTrac compiled a list of data revealing which institutions tend to move through the process quicker and for less.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA had the shortest timelines at 193 days in January 2012, a decrease compared to a year ago in January 2011, when short sales averaged 248 days. Ally Financial came in second at 321 days, reducing its timeline as well from 393 days a year ago.

PNC Financial Group was third, taking 353 days, though the bank takes longer than it did a year ago when the it took 206 days. Wells Fargo came in fourth (385 days). Bank of New York Mellon took the fifth longest (402 days), followed by Bank of America (403 days) and Sun Trust (404 days). The short sale timeline includes the time a property starts the foreclosure process to the time it’s sold as a pre-foreclosure property.

Recently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced new guidelines to take effect in June requiring servicers to respond within 30 days after receiving a short sale offer or a borrower application. Bank of America recently announced that its providing a decision on a short sale offer in 20 days.

In terms of pricing, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA sold homes for the least amount in January 2012, averaging $128,642, a drop from year ago prices in January 2011 when they averaged $160,982. Deutsche Bank’s average price was $132,996, followed by Sun Trust Banks ($144,024), and CitiGroup ($148,411), and PNC Financial Group Inc ($149,332). Bank of America Wells Fargo were the bottom two on the top 10 list, averaging $158,632 and $167,371, respectively, for January 2012.

As for the number of short sales, Bank of America completed the most in January 2012, with 5,276, followed by Chase (2,967), Wells Fargo

Fannie and Freddie Set Timeline Requirements for Short Sales

2012-04-24T16:15:00Z

Beginning June 15, real estate agents working with distressed homeowners whose loans are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should expect to receive a decision on a short sale offer within 30-60 days.

The GSEs issued new guidelines Tuesday that fall under the Servicing Alignment Initiative rolled out last fall and aim to bring greater transparency to the short sale process and expedite decisions related to these pre-foreclosure sales.

Not only is a short sale an effective foreclosure alternative when home retention is no longer an option, but it keeps homes occupied and helps to maintain stable communities, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Addressing real estate practitioners’ No. 1 complaint about short sales, FHFA directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to establish a new uniform set of minimum response times that servicers must follow in order to facilitate more efficient short sale transactions.

The GSEs’ new short sale timelines require servicers to make a decision within 30 days of receiving either an offer on a property under the companies’ traditional short sale programs or a completed Borrower Response Package (BRP) requesting short sale consideration, whether it’s through the federal government’s Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program or a GSE program.

by: Carrie BaY

If more than 30 days are needed, servicers must provide the borrower with weekly status updates and come to a decision no later than 60 days from the date the BRP or offer was received.

According to the GSEs, this 30-day add-on will provide some leeway for servicers who may need more time to obtain a broker price opinion (BPO) or a private mortgage insurer’s approval for a short sale. All decisions must be made within 60 days.

In the event a servicer makes a counteroffer, the borrower is expected to respond within five business days. The servicer must then respond within 10 business days of receiving the borrower’s response.

The GSEs plan to use the new short sale timelines to evaluate servicer compliance with the Servicing Alignment Initiative.

Edward DeMarco, acting director of the FHFA, says the GSEs new borrower communication and timeline requirements for short sales “set minimum standards and provide clear expectations regarding these important foreclosure alternatives.”

GSE servicers must comply with the new minimum communication time frames for all short sale evaluations conducted on or after June 15, 2012, although servicers are encouraged to begin implementing the new requirements sooner.

“I applaud Fannie and Freddie for finally coming out with real guidance with real world timelines for their servicers,” commented Anthony Lamacchia, broker/owner of McGeough Lamacchia Realty Inc., which specializes in short sales. “There is no question that this will help short sales and the market as a whole.”

Last year Freddie Mac completed 45,623 short sales, a 140 percent increase since 2009. Fannie Mae’s short sale completions shot up by 101 percent over the same period, totaling around 79,800 in 2011.

As Home Rents Head Higher, Owning Regains Its Appeal

2012-04-10T15:32:00Z

DAWN WOTAPKA

NICK TIMIRAOS

Climbing rents for apartments are combining with a continued decline in home prices to push once-reluctant home buyers into finally taking the plunge, say economists and real-estate agents, helping what appears to be a good start to the housing industry's all-important spring selling season.

WSJ's Dawn Wotapka examines an increase in rent costs nationwide and how it has resulted in would-be homebuyers being encouraged to take the plunge. Photo/David Zalubowski, file

Although increased buying activity from investors and second-home purchasers are also factors behind the recent pickup in home sales, real-estate agents say they are fielding more calls from anxious tenants complaining about rising rents.

"The rental market has been incredibly hot," said Ronald Peltier, chief executive of HomeServices of America Inc., which owns real-estate brokerages in 21 states. He says rising rents, coupled with slumping home prices and interest rates near record lows, are boosting demand for homes at entry-level prices.

Average apartment rents rose by 2.7% last year while the national vacancy rate dropped below 5% for the first time since 2001, according to a quarterly survey to be released Wednesday by Reis Inc., REIS +2.27% a real-estate research firm.

The broad and sustained growth of the apartment market contrasts sharply with an uneven and tentative housing recovery. During the first quarter, average apartment rents rose and vacancy rates fell in all 82 metropolitan areas tracked by Reis, when compared with a year ago.

The largest rent increases came in San Francisco and San Jose, Calif., which saw increases of 5.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Even boom-to-bust Las Vegas, which has struggled with falling rents in previous quarters, saw average rent rise 1.8% from a year earlier.

Such increases are one reason why analysts at Zelman & Associates believe 2012 will be the first year since 2005 when the share of apartment renters that moves out to buy a house increases from the previous year. "The equation of renting versus owning is becoming much more favorable for owning," said Ivy Zelman, the firm's chief executive.

Unless the economy worsens, there is little sign that rent growth will slow until hundreds of thousands of new apartment units currently under construction hit the market over the next few years.

Nishu Sood, a housing analyst with Deutsche BankDBK.XE -3.64% who tracks housing costs, says that, historically, the cost to rent an apartment has been about 10% lower than the after-tax cost of owning a home. That rental discount began to fall in 2010 and disappeared entirely last year. By the end of 2011, Mr. Sood's research found that the cost to rent an apartment was about 15% higher than the cost to own a home. Conditions are "overwhelming in the favor of buying now. It is unequivocal," he said.

In San Jose and the Silicon Valley, where home prices have tumbled 36% from the mid-2007 peak, home affordability has more than doubled in the last five years, Mr. Sood said. Affordability has also improved in Long Island and northern New Jersey, where during the boom, renting was half as expensive as buying. Now, it is almost equal.

To be sure, not all markets have seen the same development. In Orange County, Calif., and New York City, where home prices are extremely high, renting is still cheaper. But even in New York, real-estate agents say sales of small studio and one-bedroom apartments are brisk because renters don't want to pay such high amounts to rent.

"The entry-level market is back," said Dottie Herman, president of Prudential Douglas Elliman.

Jennifer Regan and her husband went under contract to buy a three-bedroom home in Martinez, Calif., last month. With a 4.25% rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, their monthly payments, including taxes and insurance, will be around $600 less than what it costs to rent a comparable house. "I couldn't believe it had gotten so expensive" to rent, said Ms. Regan, 36 years old, who is moving before her oldest son starts school this fall.

It isn't always easy for individual home buyers to make it to the closing table, however. Lending and appraisal standards remain tight, keeping many would-be buyers out of the market. And aspiring buyers are competing with savvy investors who have turned buying and reselling foreclosed homes into a business. Last week, the National Association of Realtors trade group said the number of homes purchased by investors rose 65% during 2011 to 1.2 million, representing 27% of all sales.

And for some renters, the housing crisis has shaken their desire to become owners. "If I was going to buy, I feel like I would be just in the same problem that other homeowners are having with the market," said Laurel Slutsky, 24, who just renewed the one-year lease on her Chicago two-bedroom.

"Right now, all my friends and I are hopping around neighborhoods, and I don't see the benefit in buying and staying in one place."

Your Kitchen Sells Your House

2012-04-03T15:05:00Z

It's a tool used by house flippers all across the nation. Stagers know its power. Real estate agents push its importance. What is this not-so-well-kept secret of real estate? A kitchen can sell a house.

A kitchen is the heart of a home. This is true all across the globe. The old saying that the "stomach is the way to the heart" carries a lot of truth. Kitchens are where we spend much of our time and most of that is with our families. It's the room where we nourish our bodies and our spirits.

Kitchens are integral to entertaining and in today's age of open floor plans, they're a focal piece of many family rooms. It's because of this that kitchens play such an important role in the buying and selling process.

This one room is the showpiece of the house. You'll see it every day and your guests will see it during most visits. This means buyers want homes with up-to-date kitchens.

Kitchens, however, can be one of the most expensive rooms to renovate. These projects can also be the most labor and time intensive of all home renovations. It's not just a new layer of paint.

Instead you find a complicated array of flooring, tiling, cabinets, and counters. This means buyers may want a home with an up-to-date kitchen but they aren't willing to tackle this problem themselves. Most buyers want a kitchen that is ready to use the day they move in.

What do buyers look for in up-to-date kitchens? A lot of this depends on what price range your home is in.

The main thing to remember as a seller is to not price yourself out of your market. If homes in your neighborhood are selling for $100,000 with tidy, but not luxury kitchens, then this is no time to upgrade to granite, travertine, and marble at the price tag of $40,000+. You simply won't find a buyer.

Scope out the competition. Use open houses in your area or MLS listings to find out what your competitions' kitchens look like.

Do area homes have new solid wood cabinets and granite counters in today's designer colors? You'll be wise to consider making the same move. Are they including new stainless steel appliances and add-ons like dishwashers, wine-coolers, and trash compactors?

Are you in a higher-end neighborhood? It's time to think high-end. Your older home may have a highly functional kitchen, but a buyer will take one look at your formica counters and white appliances and become lost in the stress of how much money and time it would take to remodel. If you don't want to put in the time yourself to make upgrades then you'll have to make concessions in the price.

Don't become overwhelmed, though. Sometimes a kitchen update can mean doing just a few minor changes. Change the paint color to a warm, neutral tone. Get rid of any clutter. Update your appliances, paint your cabinets, change the pulls, or get a high-end looking counter for a fraction of the cost (faux-granite or lower end granite). You might even save a bundle by doing much of the work yourself.

The bottom line is a kitchen can sell a home. Do a little research and find out what your kitchen needs to make it competitive with area listings

Experts Expect to See Broad Improvements, Home Prices to Rise in 2013

2012-04-03T15:04:00Z

The Urban Land Institute released its Real Estate Consensus Forecast Wednesday morning, and overall, the 38 real estate economists and analysts surveyed projected broad improvements for the economy.

With signs of improvement in the housing sector already emerging, participants expect to see housing starts nearly double by 2014 and project home prices will begin to rise in 2013.

The average home price, which has declined somewhere between 1.8 percent and 4.1 percent over each of the past three years, according to FHFA data, is expected to stabilize in 2012, followed by a 2 percent increase in 2013, and a 3.5 percent increase in 2014.

Single-family housing starts are expected to rise from 428,600 starts in 2011 to 500,000 in 2012, and jump to 800,000 in 2014.

The unemployment rate is expected to continue falling, with the rate dropping to 8 percent by the end of 2012, 7.5 percent by the end of 2013, and 6.9 percent by the end of 2014.

GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012 and grow to 3.2 percent in 2014.

But, with the improving economy is inflation and higher interest rates. These rising rates will increase costs for investors, and those surveyed do not expect substantial increases in real estate capitalization rates for institutional-quality investments (NCREIF cap rates), which are expected to remain steady at 6 percent in 2012 and 2013 and then rise slightly to 6.2 percent in 2014.

By property type, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) total returns in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments (12.1 percent), followed by industrial (11.5 percent), office (10.8 percent), and retail (10 percent).

By 2014, returns are expected to be strongest for office (10 percent) and industrial (10 percent), followed by apartments (8.8 percent) and retail (8.5 percent).

ULI CEO Patrick L. Phillips advised that while the ULI Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad.

“While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years.,” said Phillips.

Non-housing sector growth, according to the ULI Forecast, which was conducted from February 23 to March 12, 2012

-For the apartment sector, year-end vacancy rates are expected to decline further in 2012 to 5 percent, and then rise slightly to 5.1 percent in 2013 and to 5.3 percent in 2014.

-Apartments are expected to show strong rental rate growth, rising 5 percent in 2012, then slowing down to 4 percent in 2013, and 3.8 percent in 2014.

-Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) is expected to increase from $33 billion in 2011 to $40 billion in 2012, $58 billion in 2013, and $75 billion in 2014.

-Ten-year treasury rates are projected to rise to 2.4 percent by the end of 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

-Future equity REIT returns are expected to rise to 10 percent in 2012, then drop to 9 percent in 2013, and 8 percent in 2014.

-Returns for institutional-quality direct real estate investments are expected to trend lower, with returns of 11 percent in 2012, 9.5 percent in 2013, and 8.5 percent in 2014.

-Hotel occupancy rates are projected to increase to 57 percent by 2012, 58.2 percent by 2013, and 59.2 percent by 2014.

-For the industrial/warehouse sector, vacancy rates are expected to decline steadily over the next three years to 12.8 percent by the end of 2012, 12.1 percent in 2013, and 11.5 percent by the end of 2014.

KITCHEN SELLS A HOUSE

2012-03-27T14:44:00Z

by Carla Hill

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This one room is the showpiece of the house. You'll see it every day and your guests will see it during most visits. This means buyers want homes with up-to-date kitchens.

Kitchens, however, can be one of the most expensive rooms to renovate. These projects can also be the most labor and time intensive of all home renovations. It's not just a new layer of paint.

What do buyers look for in up-to-date kitchens? A lot of this depends on what price range your home is in.

Scope out the competition. Use open houses in your area or MLS listings to find out what your competitions' kitchens look like.

The bottom line is a kitchen can sell a home. Do a little research and find out what your kitchen needs to make it competitive with area listings.

New Prudential Real Estate Poll: Americans Increasingly Optimistic About Homeownership

2012-03-19T14:43:00Z

Prudential Real Estate released a new national survey at Sales Convention showing that Americans are significantly more optimistic about homeownership than they were a year ago.

According to the second-annual Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey, a full 60 percent of Americans have favorable views toward the real estate market. That’s up 8 points since last year.

The survey shows that signs of increasing optimism are widespread:

With interest rates at historically low levels, 96 percent agree or somewhat agree that now is a good time to buy.
A full 70 percent of respondents have some degree of confidence that property values will improve over the next two years; with an 8 point increase in those very confident or confident compared to last year.
63 percent believe that real estate is a good investment despite the recent market volatility; that’s up 11 points from last year.

The survey confirms that despite the recession, homeownership remains a central part of the American Dream. Eight in 10 respondents said homeownership is very important to them; only 15 percent said the economic downturn made homeownership less important.

Buying real estate? Think long term

2012-03-13T15:15:00Z

Despite rosy economic reports, key issues could impact purchase

By Dian Hymer, Monday, March 12, 2012

Not long ago, buying a home was the best investment you could make. Not only did it provide a place to live, but it provided instant wealth for many homeowners through rapid home-price appreciation. Renting seemed risky. If you didn't own a home, you'd miss out on equity buildup that would bankroll a move to a bigger, better home.

In this market, the realistic way to look at a home is a place you want to live. Buying a home doesn't guarantee that you'll make a big return on your investment. You might if you stay long enough. Over the long term, home-price appreciation usually outpaces the inflation rate. However, this varies from one locale to the next.

HOUSE HUNTING TIP: Today, many homeowners who want to move to a bigger or smaller home are choosing to rent for a while rather than buy. The pressure of rampant appreciation is nonexistent in most places. Even though interest rates are low, they're expected to stay low. So buyers trading homes have the luxury of renting until they find a home that will work for them long term.

This means you aren't under pressure to buy quickly. If you buy a home that you find out doesn't work for you and sell it again within a year or so, there's a good chance you'll lose money when you take into account the costs of buying and selling.

No one knows for sure when the economy will substantially improve. Last year, some economists predicted a double-dip recession. That appears to be less risky at the moment. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the nation's economic output grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent, which is not recession territory, but is not considered good enough by some economists.

On the housing scene, the number of homes sold nationally increased over the previous year in each of the last three months of 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, sale prices still haven't caught up with 2010 prices in most places.

Will 2012 be the turnaround year for housing? Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, thinks that the combination of increasing home sales, record-low interest rate and low home prices "demonstrates a market in recovery."

Other good news for housing is the recent increase in consumer confidence and the decrease in the inventory of homes for sale to a level not seen since March 2005, according to NAR. Yun thinks that the drop in inventory will contribute to price stabilization and possible modest price growth in the near future.

The housing market may have hit bottom for this cycle, but any bad economic news here or abroad could cause a rocky recovery. The unemployment rate is still high; there are millions of foreclosed homes yet to be sold; and approximately 25 percent of homeowners owe more on their homes than they're worth in today's market.

There is pent-up demand on both the buy and sell side. One problem for buyers has been the lack of quality inventory. That may improve this year as some sellers decide they're tired of waiting for a better time to sell.

The new normal is not the bubble market, but it's possible to buy and sell successfully as long as your expectations are realistic. Many sellers still think their home is worth more than it is. Overpriced listings don't sell in any market.

Buyers have the advantage of low interest rates and home prices. Buyers who can find the right house and stay put for five to 10 years will probably be happy they bought now.

THE CLOSING: Many buyers who can't stomach uncertainty won't buy now but may regret that they didn't when the market turns and buyers come rushing into the market.

Banks Loosen Credit Standards

2012-03-06T16:47:00Z

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability

Lenders are Paying Buyers to do Short Sales rather than Foreclose

2012-02-21T15:37:00Z

By Julie Schmit, USA TODAY

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Lenders are allowing more short sales by financially strapped homeowners and a few people are even getting cash to complete the sale.

Short sales are when lenders allow borrowers to sell homes for less than their unpaid mortgages. They are an alternative to foreclosures.

Short sales have been increasing for months, but the financial incentives — which Realtors say are random and infrequent — are a newer wrinkle.

Examples:

•JPMorgan Chase went national with short-sale incentive offers last year, paying up to $35,000 in some cases.

•Bank of America is testing incentives from $5,000 to $25,000 in Florida to see if they should be expanded to more states. The Florida program began last fall, spokesman Richard Simon says.

•Wells Fargo's incentive offers range from less than $3,000 to $20,000, spokesman James Hines says.

Short sales, even with incentive payments to borrowers, can save lenders money compared with the expenses involved in completing foreclosures.

In states such as Florida where foreclosures go through the courts, 50% of loans in foreclosure are more than two years past due, says a January report by mortgage tracker LPS Applied Analytics.

"It's a lot cheaper to shell out $10,000 or $20,000 to someone than it is to go through a long foreclosure," says Jim Gillespie, chief executive of Coldwell Banker.

Banks are more willing to do short sales now than in the past, Gillespie says. Cash incentives appear to be "limited but increasing" in number, he adds.

"When a loan modification isn't possible, a short sale may be a better and faster solution" than foreclosure, says JPMorgan Chase spokesman Thomas Kelly.

The lenders won't say how often they extend such incentives.

"If you have two similar sellers, one might get it and another may not," says Colleen Badagliacco of Altera Real Estate in San Jose. "It's very random."

Typically, short sale incentives are more common for loans in states where foreclosures take more time, Hines says.

In November, short sales accounted for more than 9% of single family home sales and were up 32% from the year before, according to CoreLogic.

Market researcher Dataquick also shows short sales increasing from January 2011 through last month throughout California and in Phoenix, Miami and Seattle.

The federal government-run foreclosure prevention program also offers short sale incentives, at least $3,000 for sellers, but far more short sales are being done outside the government program.

Through December, just 26,901 short sales had been completed through the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program.

In contrast, BofA, the largest servicer of home loans, did 107,000 short sales last year. That was up from 92,000 in 2010, which was double the 2009 volume, it says.

"The trend is up," says Moody's Investors Service analyst William Fricke.

Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards

2012-02-07T18:10:00Z

01/24/2012 By: Krista Franks

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit. The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago. Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters. However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability. Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings. Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.” In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV. While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan. Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

What Happens When You Walk Away From Your Home?

2012-02-01T16:38:00Z

It was just last summer that Charlotte Perkins made the hardest decision of her life as she and her husband Jim were caught in the vise of the housing bust.

Wanting to downsize their lives as they headed toward retirement, they bought a new house in Mesa, Arizona, before they sold the old one, also in Mesa. Their previous home had been appraised at nearly $400,000 at the height of the market, but as the housing crisis ravaged Arizona, they were told they'd be lucky to get $200,000 for it.

They were carrying a loan of $260,000 on their original home alone, meaning they were well 'underwater,' owing much more than it was worth. Combined with the mortgage on the new house, their housing payments had become an "anchor around our necks," she says, threatening to gobble up all their retirement savings and leave them with nothing.

The couple made a difficult call: They would do a 'strategic default,' and simply stop paying the old mortgage. "We really had to wrestle with it," said Perkins, 60. "We had worked all of our lives to build good strong credit, and we're proud people. But it came down to, 'Can we keep doing this?' We had to say 'No.'"

As the housing bust drags on, many homeowners are thinking like Perkins. Almost 11 million homes are now underwater, says financial information provider CoreLogic. Around 3.5 million homeowners are behind in their payments and another 1.5 million homes are already in the foreclosure process, according to online marketplace RealtyTrac.

As banks start to work through their backlog of distressed properties, the New York Federal Reserve estimates that 3.6 million foreclosures will take place during the next couple of years.

So, the question is: Does it make sense to keep paying a massive mortgage, knowing that it might be decades before a home regains its prior value? Or is that akin to - as columnist James Surowiecki recently wrote in the New Yorker - "setting a pile of money on fire every month"?

"I constantly get the saddest e-mails from people saying, 'I've exhausted all my life savings, my retirement is gone, and now I have to default,'" said Jon Maddux, CEO of YouWalkAway.com,

a foreclosure agency that helps clients with strategic default (and charges a fee for it). "But if they had seen the writing on the wall a couple of years earlier, stopped paying the mortgage and stayed in the home throughout the whole process, they would be in a much better financial position."

Moral Quandary

There's a moral component to that decision, of course. People naturally feel embarrassed about breaking a contract and not paying their bills; no one wants to be branded a deadbeat. But remember that companies default on their obligations when it makes financial sense for them to do so, via the bankruptcy process. Even the Mortgage Bankers Association itself, in a flourish of irony, arranged for a short sale of its Washington headquarters.

It's not personal; it's business. So think of strategic default as a business decision, and do a cold-eyed cost-benefit analysis of whether it makes sense for you, advises Carl Archer, an attorney with Maselli Warren in Princeton, New Jersey.

"People think it reflects on their integrity, and say 'I wasn't raised this way,'" said Archer. "But the more businesslike attitude is to say that there's a contract, there are penalties for violating that contract, and sometimes it just makes financial sense to break it."

The penalties largely revolve around your credit record, which admittedly gets blown up in the near-term. For a few years you can likely forget about qualifying for a mortgage or a car loan. When lenders are ready to take a chance on you again, you'll have to pay for the privilege, with stiff interest rates due to your default history.

What Happens to Scores

Charlotte Perkins watched her credit score go from a pristine 800 to 685, dropping every time she missed a payment. Credit-scoring firm FICO estimates that someone with a 680 score would see that number sink between 85-100 points after a strategic default, and someone with 780 could crater 140-160 points.

Not desirable, of course, but not the end of the world either. For Perkins, for instance, she already had a loan on her Ford Escape, and the mortgage on her new house, before she even started the default process. She hasn't seen any changes on her credit cards since, in terms of limits or interest rates.

Now that the previous home was auctioned off in December, she can start slowly rebuilding her credit, a process that should take about seven years.

Strategic default isn't a decision to be taken lightly, of course. If everyone did it, the housing market -- and the banks -- would be in much worse shape than they already are.

The following are some of the issues to keep in mind:

1. Look to it as a last resort, not a first option. Your financial troubles could be alleviated with a simple refinancing, especially since 30-year mortgage rates are near record lows of below 4 percent. If the banks are hesitant to rework your loan, look into the number of government programs designed to keep you in your home, which can be researched at MakingHomeAffordable.gov.

2. Location, location, location. Each state has its own rules and regulations regarding foreclosures, which affect both the length of the process and what you could be liable for in the end. In so-called 'non-recourse' states like Arizona, California and Texas, a lender cannot come after you for any deficiency (for instance, if your mortgage was $300,000 and they're only able to sell the property for $200,000). In other states they can pursue the difference, in theory - which is why some homeowners opt to file for bankruptcy, to free themselves from those potential obligations as well.

3. Use the interim to save like a demon. If you're in a state like New York or Florida, which require a judicial review of every foreclosure, it might be a couple of years before you actually have to pack up. In the meantime, be extremely disciplined about stockpiling cash. That will help you with a down payment for a rental, to pay for a car in cash if you need to, or to clear up other debts you might have. "Save money as if you were still paying the mortgage," says Archer. "If you don't, then you'll run out of both time and money, and then you'll be in a real tough spot."

4. Know the tax implications. Historically, if you have a debt that's forgiven, the canceled amount is considered taxable by the IRS. In the wake of the housing bust, though, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act was drafted to spare you those taxes. That legislation expires at the end of 2012, though - so if it's not extended, you could potentially face a tax bill for the difference.

5. Talk to a professional. A bankruptcy or real-estate attorney can help you through a very tricky process. The National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, for instance, has a searchable database of lawyers at www.nacba.org.

"Strategic default is not an easy decision, and there's a cost either way," said Gerri Detweiler, director of consumer education for Credit.com. "Would you rather be $200,000 underwater, or would you rather have seven years of damage to your credit report? It depends whether you're finally at the point where enough is enough."